Investing in the stock market is not simply about identifying companies with the highest growth. You first need to understand where capital is flowing, what structural transformations are taking place in the economy, and, most importantly, how much of this growth is already factored into valuations.

In the current Moroccan context, four major areas particularly capture my attention: healthcare, infrastructure and construction, banking, and consumption.

However, my interpretation differs for each of them.

• Healthcare → a structurally very strong sector.
• Infrastructure/Construction → exceptional investment cycle, but naturally more cyclical.
• Banks → beneficiaries of growth and investment financing.
• Consumption → real potential, but more dependent on household purchasing power.

Among these four themes, I currently attach particularly high strategic importance to healthcare.

Moroccan Healthcare: Looking Beyond the Next Quarter

The reason is simple: we are not just facing a cyclical increase in healthcare spending. We are witnessing a structural transformation of the Moroccan healthcare ecosystem.

The budget for the Ministry of Health and Social Protection will reach MAD 42.4 billion in 2026, compared to MAD 32.6 billion in 2025, representing an increase of over 30%, in a context of accelerating social protection and modernizing healthcare infrastructure.

But investors must look even further.

Several forces can support the sector for many years: the expansion of medical coverage, urbanization, demographic changes, the gradual aging of the population, increasing demand for specialized care, historical needs for medical infrastructure, and the development of the private sector to complement public offerings.

In other words, we are facing a trend whose horizon is measured more in years than in quarters.

This is precisely the kind of transformation I look for when analyzing a sector.

But identifying an excellent sector is only the first half of the work.

The second half is much more difficult:

At what price should you agree to pay for this growth?

And this is where AKDITAL becomes particularly interesting.

AKDITAL: Excellent Company, But At What Price?

I reassessed AKDITAL's valuation using 2025 results and data available for the first quarter of 2026.

In my opinion, a common mistake must be avoided: confusing enterprise value, equity value, and market capitalization.

In 2025, AKDITAL achieved MAD 4.413 billion in revenue, an operating income of MAD 807.8 million, and a consolidated net income of MAD 494.3 million.

Growth remains strong in 2026. In the first quarter, revenue reached MAD 1.170 billion, compared to 940 million a year earlier, an increase of +24%. The group then had 41 establishments and 4,505 beds.

These are undeniably solid fundamentals.

But an analyst cannot only look at revenue growth.

They must also look at the price paid for this growth and how it is financed.

Debt is the point the market must not forget

At the end of March 2026, AKDITAL's consolidated net debt reached MAD 4.539 billion, compared to 4.268 billion at the end of December 2025. This increase accompanies, among other things, the investments necessary for national and international expansion.

This is why I prefer to first consider the Enterprise Value (EV).

Let's take an example.

If we estimate the enterprise value at MAD 22 billion, it would be incorrect to conclude that shareholders own MAD 22 billion in value.

Net debt must be deducted:

MAD 22 billion − MAD 4.54 billion ≈ MAD 17.46 billion in equity value.

This value must then be related to the number of shares.

This is a fundamental difference.

My Fundamental Valuation of AKDITAL

Based on currently available data and my growth, profitability, and risk assumptions, I estimate a reasonable equity value for AKDITAL to be around MAD 17 to 19 billion today.

This leads me to a central fundamental value close to MAD 1,250 per share, with a range I consider reasonable of approximately:

MAD 1,100 to 1,400/share

This range is more important to me than a single target price.

Because a valuation is never an absolute mathematical truth. It depends on assumptions of growth, margin, cost of capital, investment, and debt.

At MAD 1,130, for example, my interpretation is relatively clear:

AKDITAL is no longer a cheap stock based on its historical results. But it is not obviously overvalued if the group successfully executes its growth plan.

This nuance is essential.

The Market is No Longer Just Buying AKDITAL 2025

This is probably the central point of my analysis.

Anyone who values AKDITAL solely on its 2025 profit is looking in the rearview mirror.

The group aims for 59 establishments in over 29 cities in Morocco by 2028, with a capacity exceeding 6,000 beds.

And a second story is now beginning to take shape: international expansion.

AKDITAL aims to develop an international network of 15 establishments representing approximately 2,000 beds by 2030, with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Tunisia as strategic markets.

This gradually changes the very nature of the case.

AKDITAL could transition from a Moroccan private healthcare champion to a regional hospital platform.

But beware: this transformation still needs to be executed.

The stock market tends to value the future before it is visible in the accounts. This is both its strength and its danger.

Arab Invest: Much More Than Just an Equity Investment

The entry of Arab Invest, taking a 15% stake in Akdital International, therefore deserves particular consideration.

First, it's important to understand that Arab Invest is not acquiring 15% of the listed AKDITAL group. The operation concerns the international structure.

This is important.

But what interests me even more is the quality of the new shareholder.

Arab Invest is a pan-Arab investment institution owned by the governments of 16 Arab states, with approximately $917 million in paid-up capital and around $1.4 billion in assets under management.

Its arrival therefore potentially brings three elements:

capital,
institutional validation of the project, and above all, a strategic regional anchor.

This last element is particularly interesting given AKDITAL's ambitions in Saudi Arabia and, more broadly, in the Gulf.

It is therefore not merely a financial operation.

It is potentially a strategic derisking operation for international expansion.

The Real Change: Sharing the Funding of Growth

This is where my interpretation becomes more interesting.

Developing a hospital network is extremely capital-intensive: real estate, medical equipment, recruitment, working capital requirements, and the gradual ramp-up of the occupancy rate.

If AKDITAL had to finance its entire international expansion alone, the pressure on its balance sheet would become a central issue.

Bringing institutional investors into Akdital International potentially allows for sharing the financing of development without the entire financial burden falling on the listed parent company.

And for the shareholder, this difference matters enormously.

The question is therefore no longer just:

How many clinics can AKDITAL open?

The real question becomes:

How much growth can AKDITAL create for each dirham of additional capital committed by its shareholders?

It is this value creation logic that I will be monitoring.

My Valuation Zones

I prefer to work with zones rather than a rigid target.

At this stage, my framework is as follows:

This framework primarily helps to understand one thing.

The higher the price, the less room for error there is.

At MAD 1,000, investors can absorb more unpleasant surprises.

At MAD 1,700, new facilities must open, establishments must ramp up correctly, margins must hold, international operations must succeed, and debt must remain under control.

This is exactly why I often repeat that it is necessary to distinguish between the quality of the company and the quality of the price paid to become a shareholder in that company.

MAD 1,250 or MAD 1,740? The DCF will Decide

The next step in my work on AKDITAL will therefore be different.

A simple PER or a consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple is gradually becoming insufficient to properly understand the group's value.

I will now favor an approach combining DCF and Sum of the Parts, separating at a minimum:

AKDITAL Morocco,
Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates,
Tunisia.

For each area, it will be necessary to project the number of establishments, bed capacities, occupancy rate, revenue per bed, EBITDA margin, CAPEX, working capital requirements, and the debt needed for development.

These flows will then need to be discounted with a cost of capital consistent with the risk of each market.

It is this work that will determine whether the economic value is truly around MAD 1,250, or whether future fundamentals can gradually justify valuations closer to MAD 1,700 and beyond.

My Conviction in Healthcare Remains Strong, But My Price Discipline Remains Intact

I consider healthcare to be one of the most powerful structural themes on the Casablanca Stock Exchange for the coming years.

AKDITAL has a unique position to benefit from this: leadership, execution capacity, territorial expansion, and now international ambition.

But stock market history teaches us a simple rule:

An excellent company is not automatically an excellent investment at any price.

My job as a strategic analyst is therefore not to fall in love with a sector or a company.

It involves identifying the structural trend, understanding the quality of the economic model, measuring financial risk, estimating intrinsic value, and then waiting until the ratio between the price paid and the expected value becomes sufficiently attractive.

Regarding Moroccan healthcare, the structural trend seems clear to me.

Regarding AKDITAL, the quality of the company also seems clear to me.

The real battle is now being fought elsewhere:

between future growth, debt, and valuation.

And that is precisely where the real work of the investor begins.

— Hicham AIT BASLAM
Strategic Analyst of Financial Markets and Disruptive Technologies, Investor and Leading Advisor