MODERNA: WE WERE RIGHT

When vision, valuation, and patience precede price

There are times in financial markets when the price eventually catches up to a fundamental reality that investors had stopped considering.

Moderna is a remarkable illustration of this today.

When the stock was trading around $23, market sentiment was deeply degraded.

Declining Covid-related revenues, financial losses, questions about the pipeline, and investor distrust had gradually transformed Moderna, in the eyes of part of the market, into a company whose story primarily belonged to the pandemic.

Our reading was different.

We weren't just looking at the stock price.

We were looking at the company behind the price.

And above all, we were asking a crucial question:

What value does the market truly assign to Moderna's technology, pipeline, scientific capital, and future options?

It was this difference between price and value that was at the heart of our thinking.

From $23 to over $140: the market's perception abruptly changes

August 19, 2026 will likely remain an important date in Moderna's recent history.

The announcement of positive Phase 3 results for intismeran autogene, developed with Merck and combined with Keytruda, triggered a spectacular re-evaluation of the company by the market.

Moderna's stock more than doubled during the session, reaching an intraday high of approximately $163, before settling back around $148. The company's market capitalization thus temporarily exceeded $50 billion.

A few months earlier, the stock had touched levels close to $22–$23.

The contrast is considerable.

But to reduce this movement to a simple stock market surge would, in my opinion, be to miss the essential point.

What the market has just re-evaluated is not just a drug.

It's potentially the credibility of a technological platform.

Why we were interested in Moderna when the market doubted

Investing when everything is going well is relatively easy.

The real work begins when the market no longer wants to hear about a company.

When Moderna was trading around $23, the company faced several real difficulties.

The exceptional revenues generated during the pandemic had disappeared.

The company had become unprofitable again.

In the second quarter of 2026, Moderna reported only approximately $100 million in revenue and a GAAP net loss of approximately $800 million.

Despite this, the company still expected to end 2026 with approximately $4.7 to $5.2 billion in cash.

It was therefore necessary to distinguish two things.

The current financial difficulties.

And the potential value of future technological assets.

This is precisely where our investment philosophy comes in.

We are not just looking for companies that are currently showing the best results.

We also seek to understand those whose market perception could be very different in three, five, or ten years.

The real catalyst: Intismeran

Intismeran is a personalized therapy based on messenger RNA technology.

Its principle is particularly interesting.

Based on the specific characteristics of a patient's tumor, the treatment is designed to help their immune system recognize certain mutations specific to that tumor.

It is therefore not simply a matter of reproducing the traditional vaccine model.

We are entering a much broader logic of personalized medicine.

In the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 study, 1,137 patients with completely resected high-risk cutaneous melanoma were studied.

The combination of intismeran and Keytruda achieved a statistically significant and clinically relevant improvement in recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival compared to Keytruda alone.

This is a major step.

Because it is no longer just a scientific promise.

We now have Phase 3 validation.

The real stakes go beyond melanoma

This is probably where our vision of Moderna becomes most interesting.

If Intismeran were solely a treatment for melanoma, its economic potential would already be significant.

Some estimates suggest up to approximately $3 billion in potential annual sales in this indication by 2035.

But our thinking does not stop at melanoma.

Moderna is also studying Intismeran in several other cancers.

The program includes work on lung, kidney, bladder, and pancreatic cancer.

This is where the strategic option lies.

If this technology progressively succeeds in several tumor types, the market might eventually stop considering Intismeran as a single product.

It might begin to view Moderna as the owner of a technological platform capable of producing different personalized cancer therapies.

And economically, this distinction is considerable.

From Covid company to therapeutic platform

For several years, Moderna suffered from an almost automatic association with Covid.

For many investors:

Moderna = Covid vaccine.

This simplification was precisely one of the elements that made the case interesting.

Because behind this image was a company that had invested for years in a technological infrastructure around messenger RNA.

So the question was not:

"Will Covid revenues return?"

The real question was:

"Can the mRNA platform demonstrate its economic utility in completely different therapeutic areas?"

The announced success in melanoma now provides an extremely important answer.

The answer could be yes.

Valuation changes, but our discipline does not

However, we must remain extremely disciplined.

A company that is interesting at $23 is not necessarily as interesting at $120, $140, or $160.

This is a fundamental rule of investing.

An excellent company can become a bad investment if bought at an excessive valuation.

Conversely, a company facing difficulties can become an opportunity when its price already reflects an extremely pessimistic scenario.

That is why our work on Moderna does not stop with this increase.

It even becomes more important.

From now on, we will need to monitor:

• the detailed publication of Phase 3 results;
• discussions with regulatory authorities;
• the potential commercialization timeline;
• the real economics of the partnership with Merck;
• results in other oncological indications;
• the evolution of cash and R&D expenses;
• the trajectory towards profitability;
• and especially the valuation that the market will progressively assign to these different franchises.

The complete results of the Phase 3 study have not yet been published. The companies plan to present the data at an upcoming international medical conference and engage in discussions with regulatory authorities.

The market reminds us of an essential rule

The Moderna case perfectly illustrates something we constantly teach at HAB CAPITAL TRADING:

Price is what the market shows you today.
Value depends on what the company can produce tomorrow.

When Moderna was trading around $23, it was psychologically difficult to look beyond the pessimism.

Today, after a spectacular increase in the stock price, it becomes easy to be optimistic.

But the disciplined investor must precisely learn to do the opposite.

Seek when no one wants to seek.

Analyze when the market doubts.

Be patient when the thesis requires time.

And finally:

recalculate when the price changes.

We were right. But this is not the end of the analysis.

Yes, we can be proud of this interpretation today.

Not simply because a stock went from approximately $23 to over $120.

But because this movement illustrates our philosophy.

Vision. Analysis. Valuation. Discipline. Patience.

Our goal has never been to chase prices.

We seek to understand companies, their fundamentals, their technologies, their competitive advantages, their valuations, and the structural transformations capable of creating value over several years.

Moderna reminds us today why this discipline is important.

But yesterday's success must never replace tomorrow's analysis.

At $23, we asked ourselves:

"What is the market no longer valuing?"

Today, after this spectacular re-evaluation, the question becomes:

"What part of Moderna's future potential is now embedded in the price?"

It is this question that will now guide our next analysis.

Anticipate rather than follow.
Analyze rather than speculate.
Understand value rather than chase price.

Hicham AIT BASLAM
Founder – HAB CAPITAL TRADING
Analyst & Strategist in Financial Markets & Disruptive Technologies
Leading Investor & Advisor
Morocco | United Arab Emirates
www.habcapitaltrading.com